It wasn't an earthquake, but movements in the NCAA last week are tremors that portend seismic shifts in the football landscape there.
First Colorado announced it would leave the Big 12 for the Pac Ten (now 11). On Friday, Nebraska announced it was leaving the Big 12 for the Big Ten. That would give the Big Ten 12 members, while the Big 12 now has ten. Go figure! Don't worry though- no one expects things to remain that way for long.
Pac 10 commissioner Larry Scott appears to have outmaneuvered the Big 10's Jim Delaney, at least for the moment. Delaney began all the rumblings and speculation by announcing that the Big 10 was looking to expand withing the next 12-18 months; and that it wouldn't necessarily stop at twelve, indicating that 14 or 16 were possibilities. The hugely successful Big Ten TV network pays member schools a larger TV revenue share than that of any other conference, and larger than Notre Dame's exclusive contract with NBC.
Scott's plan that seems to be developing would bring 5 more teams to the Pac Ten to bring it to 16 of the PacWest (you read it here first) Conference, including what is generally regarded as the big prize, Texas. Presumably those teams would combine with Arizona and ASU to form an inland division, with the old members of the Pac Eight forming the Coastal Division. Their television contracts expire in 2011, and many are expecting them to attempt to construct something similar to the Big Ten network with Fox Sports.
The Big 10 was also reported to be in discussions with Texas, but did not want to bring along a lot of extra baggage- Texas Tech and Baylor by name- which the Texas state legislature forced the Big 12 to accept when Texas and Texas A & M joined the Big 8 to create the Big 12 in 1994, marking the demise of the Southwest Conference.
The Aggies are said to be eying a spot in the SEC instead, which would probably be good for them, getting out from under the Longhorn shadow.
The admission of Nebraska to the Big Ten frankly surprised me. It seems a much better deal for Nebraska than it is for the Big Ten. While the Cornhusker football program might bring some prestige, Nebraska ranks below all other Big Ten schools in academics; and offers a very small television market.
With Big Ten membership usually comes admission to the CIC, a consortium of shared research (and a huge amount of research $$) and graduate school programs that includes all Big Ten schools and the University of Chicago. It was established as an academic counterpoint to the athletic conference in 1958, and also boasts the largest combined library in the US. It is considered second in prestige only to the Ivy League. All members of the Big 10 are now members of the elite Association of American Universities, which was founded in 1900 with fourteen members, mostly from the Ivy League, as well as Michigan, Wisconsin, (and Stanford and UC Berkeley). The AAU now has 61 members. So achieving an invitation would be attractive addition to the legacy of the head of any university, as it is generally these people who make the decisions on which conferences to join.
The Big Ten has long thought to be pursuing Notre Dame as well as Texas. Notre Dame is fiercely protective of its Catholic and independent, especially in football. Though it is not a member of the AAU, it has been ranked #20 by the USN&WR, and would bring a nationwide fan-base.
My prediction- which proved to be wrong- was that the Big Ten would first approach ND and Texas simultaneously. Then, depending on the results of those negotiations, would look to expand in the East: Maryland, perhaps Virginia, and Rutgers and/or Syracuse (to heighten a presence in the NYC market); and (especially if Texas joined) into the Mid-southwest: meaning Texas A & M and/or Missouri (St. Louis and Kansas City markets). One intriguing idea included Georgia Tech along with Maryland, as one GT blogger pointed out that half the schools in the Big Ten are actually closer to Atlanta than many of the schools in the ACC.
